Economic insights: December 2024/January 2025

Dans le secteur de l'immobilier, il est essentiel de suivre les tendances du marché, bien sûr, mais aussi celles de l'économie mondiale, qui affecte non seulement l'immobilier, mais aussi la plupart des aspects de la vie quotidienne.

Suivez l'actualité sur Luxury Portfolio International , où Marci Rossell, économiste en chef pour Leading Real Estate Companies of the World, partage ses cinq principaux enseignements du mois dernier.

1. Mixed jobs report

The latest jobs report showed stronger-than-expected job growth, with over 200,000 jobs added in November. This positive development was accompanied by a revision of October’s weaker numbers (note revisions, even large ones, are expected in job reports.)

Despite the job growth, unemployment is at 4.2 percent, indicating that more people are joining the workforce. The Federal Reserve is likely to look beyond these monthly fluctuations to focus on long-term interest rates and inflation, especially with an important Fed meeting coming up in mid-December.

2. U.S economy year in review

The U.S. economy is expected to grow by $1.4 trillion over 2024, reflecting strong economic performance across various sectors.

The unemployment rate increased from 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates to support job growth and economic stability. The budget deficit rose from 6.2 to 6.4 percent of GDP, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges.

In the housing market, mortgage rates were trending down, but since the election have begun trending up, reflecting expectations of higher interest rates and inflation next year. Home sales have slightly decreased from last year’s 4 million to 3.96 million, partly due to these rising rates.

The stock market, however, showed robust growth, with the S&P 500 increasing from 4804 to 6075, indicating strong investor confidence and financial market performance.

3. 2025 outlook

Looking ahead to 2025, potential corporate tax cuts and deregulation under the Trump administration could significantly benefit high-income earners and luxury buyers. These measures are expected to extend the 2017 tax cuts and possibly lower corporate tax rates further, providing a boost to the stock market and luxury real estate.

Larger tariffs on trading partners like Mexico, Canada and China could lead to higher long-term interest rates and fewer Fed rate cuts, as the bond market anticipates inflation. This scenario could be challenging for first-time homebuyers and low-income buyers who are more sensitive to interest rate changes.

Additionally, potential increases in deportations would tighten construction labor, further constraining housing inventory and impacting the market.

4. Global implications

China’s economy is slowing and facing a significant real estate crisis, with tariffs impacting both U.S. consumers and Chinese exports. This situation could lead to fewer purchases from China, further damaging their struggling economy.

We may see production move from high-tariff China to lower-tariff areas, but those changes will take time. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada could pressure production to move to the U.S., affecting global trade dynamics and potentially leading to higher costs for consumers.

The phrase “when the U.S. catches the flu, the rest of the world catches a cold” underscores the significant global impact of U.S. economic policies and the interconnectedness of the global economy.

5. Artificial Intelligence pros and cons

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to have a profound impact on the economy. On the positive side, AI has the potential to solve labor problems without causing massive layoffs.

Instead of replacing jobs, AI can augment labor and enhance skills, transforming low-skilled workers into high-skilled ones. This shift could lead to higher wages, increased tax revenues, and potentially help address deficit issues.

However, there are also concerns about the social implications of AI. As AI technology advances, it will be crucial for democratic societies to exert control over its development and use to ensure it benefits the public good.

For a deeper dive into the social implications of AI, consider listening to the insightful interview with Yuval Noah Harari on the Rich Roll podcast.

En tant qu'économiste en chef de LeadingRE, Marci Rossell étudie la manière dont les économies, les politiques et les politiques mondiales affectent directement ou indirectement le secteur de l'immobilier et notre vie quotidienne. Marci Rossell a fait ses preuves en matière d'analyse du marché économique en tant qu'ancienne économiste en chef de CNBC et économiste d'entreprise chez OppenheimerFunds.