Economic insights: January 2025
Dans le secteur de l'immobilier, il est essentiel de suivre les tendances du marché, bien sûr, mais aussi celles de l'économie mondiale, qui affecte non seulement l'immobilier, mais aussi la plupart des aspects de la vie quotidienne.
Suivez l'actualité sur Luxury Portfolio International , où Marci Rossell, économiste en chef pour Leading Real Estate Companies of the World, partage ses cinq principaux enseignements du mois dernier.
1. Quarter century retrospective
Reflecting on the past quarter century, we see significant changes and some constants since the year 2000. Back then, Bill Clinton was the U.S. President, and Alan Greenspan chaired the Federal Reserve.
China had not yet joined the WTO, and the euro was only traded electronically. The U.S. and EU economies were roughly the same size.
Notably, Vladimir Putin, elected in 2000, remains a significant world leader.
Globally, GDP has tripled from $33 trillion to over $100 trillion, lifting many out of poverty. In the U.S., GDP per capita nearly doubled from $36K to $67K, with unemployment rates remaining stable around 4%.
The S&P 500 has grown over three times since 2000, significantly boosting retirees’ portfolios. The 10-year treasury rate dropped from 6.7% to 4.6%, reflecting a long-term decline in inflation and an increase in global savings.
Existing home sales have declined by 20%, from 5 million to 4 million annually, despite lower mortgage rates and a higher population. Additionally, the global population has aged significantly, with a notable increase in the over-65 population, particularly impacting economies like Japan, Germany, Italy and China.
2. Consumer confidence puzzle
Despite higher incomes, GDP per capita, stable labor markets, lower inflation and a booming stock market, Americans’ consumer confidence has declined from its peak in 2000 of 111.4 to 74 today. Post-pandemic inflation spikes in 2021 and 2022 have left a lasting impact on consumer perceptions, creating a disconnect between economic reality and sentiment.
3. China and Europe
China, once predicted to surpass the U.S. economy, faces challenges due to a lack of rule of law, strong property rights and a declining population. The U.S. GDP has pulled ahead of both the EU and China.
The EU’s economy has struggled with debt crises and population decline, causing the gap between U.S. and EU economic growth to widen. Declining populations in Japan, Germany, Italy and China pose significant economic challenges, with China’s population expected to halve by 2100.
4. Big predictions for 2025
Looking ahead to 2025, financial markets rallied at election news, with expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under the Trump administration. However, treasury bonds moved in the opposite direction, indicating higher interest rates.
The latest inflation report shows a 2.9% rate, with tariffs and enhanced deportations expected to drive inflation higher. Policies are split between business-promoting and business-harming effects.
Mortgage rates are predicted to remain around 7%, already pricing in worst-case scenarios.
5. Housing inventory and AI impact
America is approaching “Peak 65,” with around 4 million Americans turning 65 over the next two years. This demographic shift is expected to drive increased demand for second homes and retirement relocations.
The new administration’s promise to deport 1-2 million people annually would significantly constrain housing inventory, though the new director of housing and urban development has identified housing inventory as a critical issue.
Furthermore, the aging U.S. population and the rise of AI will place enormous stress on the power infrastructure, necessitating substantial investments to meet future demands.
En tant qu'économiste en chef de LeadingRE, Marci Rossell étudie la manière dont les économies, les politiques et les politiques mondiales affectent directement ou indirectement le secteur de l'immobilier et notre vie quotidienne. Marci Rossell a fait ses preuves en matière d'analyse du marché économique en tant qu'ancienne économiste en chef de CNBC et économiste d'entreprise chez OppenheimerFunds.