Economic insights: July/August 2024
Dans le secteur de l'immobilier, il est essentiel de suivre les tendances du marché, bien sûr, mais aussi celles de l'économie mondiale, qui affecte non seulement l'immobilier, mais aussi la plupart des aspects de la vie quotidienne.
Suivez l'actualité sur Luxury Portfolio International , où Marci Rossell, économiste en chef pour Leading Real Estate Companies of the World, partage ses cinq principaux enseignements du mois dernier.
1. Global IT outage impact
A significant IT outage, which began in the U.S., led to global disruptions.
Despite not being a cyberattack and being relatively brief, this incident underscored the vulnerabilities inherent in our interconnected digital economy and the risks associated with technological advancements.
Dr. Rossell points out that although our interconnectedness makes it impossible to completely avoid risks, it doesn’t diminish the substantial benefits that technological progress offers.
2. Labor market cooling
The June unemployment report showed job growth, but also an unemployment rate at 4 percent, up from the 3.4 percent low in March 2022 (when the Federal Reserve began to raise rates).
This gradual increase reflects the impact of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tight monetary policy, which began over two years ago. Dr. Rossell notes the labor market’s loosening from its super-tight levels two years ago is one of the ways that monetary policy is impacting the economy.
3. Federal Reserve rate cut predictions
No changes were expected from the Federal Reserve at their end-of-July meeting.
However, a rate cut of 25 basis points is predicted for September, provided inflation continues its downward trajectory. This forecast is based on the current economic indicators, which show a positive trend with falling commodity prices and a global shift in monetary policy.
Notably, other central banks have already begun reducing rates, signaling a broader trend towards easing monetary conditions.
Dr. Rossell emphasizes that this anticipated rate cut could be pivotal in stimulating economic growth while managing inflation.
4. Housing market dynamics
Mortgage rates are falling — down to 6.77 percent for the week of July 18, per Freddie Mac — in anticipation of the September rate cut.
Additionally, existing home inventory has increased by 35.8 percent year-over-year as of mid-July. Dr. Rossell attributes this to a diminishing “lock-in effect.” Homeowners with low mortgage rates from previous years are now moving despite higher current rates.
However, median home prices continue to rise and new construction remains stagnant, presenting affordability challenges.
5. Global trade and economic fragmentation
There is a growing fragmentation in global trade, particularly between Eastern and Western economies. Dr. Rossell points out the implications of increasing tariffs and economic separation, which could affect global consumers and the real estate market in the coming year.
En tant qu'économiste en chef de LeadingRE, Marci Rossell étudie la manière dont les économies, les politiques et les politiques mondiales affectent directement ou indirectement le secteur de l'immobilier et notre vie quotidienne. Marci Rossell a fait ses preuves en matière d'analyse du marché économique en tant qu'ancienne économiste en chef de CNBC et économiste d'entreprise chez OppenheimerFunds.